Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Presumption

Thumbing through a (scholastic) book at Barnes and Noble last week, I saw a clear outline of the difference between assumption and presumption. I'd always known they were very closely related, but the book made the line clear: assumption is a guess based on your own mere feelings - nothing factual in any way, which, I presume, is where the "Assumption makes an a-- out of u & me" explanation comes in. Presumption is a guess based on facts - things that can be proven and may lead you to a guess.

The past two days have been gorgeous. They've been hot and miserable, but absolutely beautiful for August in Virginia. They've been like nothing I recall seeing in a long, long time. August in Virginia is hot, muggy, buggy, hazy (when the mugginess takes over and you can't see the mountain ranges very well - almost like a permanent fog...). Triple H is the forecast most of the time (hot, humid, hazy).

Yesterday was hot. Subjective, yes, but when you go a month straight with 95+ temperatures, hot suffices. The difference was that yesterday had a clear, comfortable breeze with it. This time of year, when there's a breeze, it does nothing but make you feel like you're cooking. When you open the door to go outside, it's like opening the door to the oven, except it doesn't usually smell as nice. But when I opened the door yesterday, the sun baked me, but the breeze felt wonderful - a refreshing, revitalizing breeze. It was actually quite comfortable in the shade. In early August. Unheard of.

Today, the haziness is gone. The clouds are puffy and dot the sky. The breeze, again, is refreshing and actually quite strong. And the temperature is starting to come down. We usually see weather like this in late September, not early August.

Based on my previous Autumns in Virginia, and based on the data from these past two days, and without looking at any farmer's almanac or doing any research on the internet, I presume that this will be a relatively early fall. I think this may be a long winter, but based on the coats of the groundhogs, I don't think it is going to be a hard one (they're quite lean and brown). I don't see any evidence that we're going to have a lot of snow this year.

I'd like to have precipitation. Who wouldn't? But my curiosity lies more in the temperatures at the moment. I know many are suffering from the current heat wave we've experienced, and I'd like this trend to continue. We'll see where the weather goes and what develops over the next few months.

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